57% of group EBITDA rests on whether Nigeria's January-2025 tariff hike is a permanent regime or a 12-year-precedent one-off.

• The hike that broke a 12-year drought. Nigeria's NCC approved the first telco tariff hike since 2013 in January 2025, lifting naira ARPU 32% in one quarter. Both MTN and Airtel passed it through with no price competition — five quarters of regulated-duopoly behaviour and counting.
• The reset, in numbers. MTN Nigeria constant-currency service revenue grew +54.9% in FY25; group net income swung from a $577M loss in FY24 to $1.66B profit; HEPS jumped from 5.8c to 77c off a single regulatory approval.
• The political stress test is 2027. The 12-year delay before approval is itself the data point — African telco tariffs get proposed, delayed, and rolled back under populist pressure (Uganda's 2018 OTT tax is the comparable). Nigeria's next general election runs January 2027.

FY25 reversed every FY24 wound — EBITDA up 66%, dividend rebased +45%, an inaugural buyback authorised.

FY24's $577M net loss was an FX translation artefact — a halved naira flowing through finance costs and IAS 29 hyperinflation — not an operating break. The constant-currency engine never moved outside its 39-45% EBITDA-margin band even through the worst FX shock in MTN's history. FY25 prints the same engine without the FX dial against it, resetting HEPS to 77c from 5.8c and funding both the rebased $0.30 dividend and a $363M inaugural buyback.

MTN reversed 15 years of tower-divestment policy with the largest single deal of the Mupita era.

• The U-turn. In February 2026 MTN agreed to buy the remaining 75% of IHS Towers Africa for $6.2B EV — at a 239% premium to the March-2024 strategic-review price. Mupita's 2017-21 pitch had been to sell IHS as a monetisation lever; this deal inverts it.
• What it captures. Roughly $0.6B per year of EBITDA would flow back from independent towercos to MTN — a permanent structural cost wedge no peer can replicate. Airtel, Vodacom, and Orange all keep paying their towercos.
• What is contingent. Close requires FCCPC and Nigerian SEC clearance; precedent for African M&A remedies is real — Vodacom-Maziv was blocked October 2024 and is on appeal. Capacity-sharing remedies could trim the recapture economics 30-50%.

Five live legal matters, all classified remote, against multi-billion historical settlements on this same issuer.

• The cluster. US DoJ grand jury (Iran/Afghanistan), five US Anti-Terrorism Act suits (Zobay past motion to dismiss), $4.5B Turkcell with SA jurisdiction confirmed April 2025, AC Shining Stars €4B Mobile Money trademark suit filed January 2026, and an alleged SEC whistleblower complaint flagged March 2026.
• The reserve. $109M aggregate contingent liability across all five matters; sell-side mean target around $10.7 embeds zero provision; the +71% one-year tape recovered the August-2025 DoJ disclosure drop in three months.
• The precedent the consensus ignores. MTN's own history is settlement, not exoneration — Nigeria's 2015 $5.2B SIM fine settled at $1B; the 2018 $8.1B dividend repatriation dispute settled at $53M. Even at 90% compression, a $4.5B Turkcell claim leaves $0.4B in play.

Three hard-dated events test three different thesis variables before mid-August.

• 29 May 2026 — AGM. Remuneration implementation vote: last year's 40.82% against was the highest of any JSE top-40 in 2025. A second consecutive failure forces a formal engagement plan; a pass above 75% removes the governance overhang.
• 9-10 June 2026 — Capital Markets Day. First chance to convert the loose Ambition 2030 framework into quantified FY26-28 targets. The near-term event most likely to reset the consolidated multiple toward Airtel's 6.3x EV/EBITDA.
• ~15-18 August 2026 — H1 results. First clean operating read between the FY25 reset and the H2 IHS close. Nigeria constant-currency service revenue growth below +15% YoY in two consecutive prints is the bull-case disconfirming signal.